When discussing the likelihood of certain events, people sometimes use the terms “possibility” and “probability” interchangeably, thinking they mean the same thing. However, they have slightly different meanings to describe different aspects of chances.
Possibility: A Potential Outcome
First, possibility explores whether something has occurred or may occur in the future. It acknowledges the presence of chance but does not investigate further into the likelihood of that event happening. For example, imagine flipping a coin. The possibility of it landing on heads or tails is 50-50, given that there are two possible outcomes. In this scenario, we are only concerned with whether it is feasible for either side to come up without considering other factors.
Understanding Probability: More Than Just Possibility
Next, probability isn’t just about the possibility of an event happening; it’s much more than that. Probability allows us to understand the likelihood of an outcome occurring or one that may already have happened. Consequently, it can help us make informed decisions. Therefore, it is essential to acknowledge that probability is a concept that goes beyond the potential of an event occurring.
For example, multiple factors and relevant data are taken into account to assign a numerical value to the probability of something happening. This can be done by analysing past data, using statistical models or conducting experiments. In the case of the coin flip, probability would assess the weight distribution of the coin, the force applied, and other variables to estimate the chance of it landing on heads or tails.
Obsessions in OCD: Detached from Possibility and Probability
Now let’s consider an obsession in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). It is a concept that cannot be assigned a possibility. Nor can it be measured to gauge probability. This is because an obsession is based on a person’s imagination rather than reality. This does not mean that the obsession’s subject matter cannot occur in reality. However, it is not caused by the person’s obsessive fear of it happening. For instance, accidents can happen but do not result from someone’s obsessive fear of accidents.
The Role of Obsessive Logic in OCD
Even though it is impossible to measure and evaluate the chances of obsessive fears occurring, people with OCD still doubt their sensory perceptions when confronted with these fears. Due to this, they rely on OCD’s logic to find the truth and put doubt to rest. They cannot settle despite knowing logically that their obsession cannot be rendered a legitimate possibility or probability. It’s hard for them to trust that it holds no factual data in the here and now. So, again, they count on the details that come from OCD’s logic to make decisions.
Such logic includes inferences like personal experience, generalisations, abstract facts, etc. For instance, suppose the person who fears accidents occurring has a personal experience of harm similar to the content of their obsession. In this case, the reality-based incident adds credibility to their obsession, making it seem like there are known things about their feared event. It blends with their obsessional fear, whether it is about something that may already have happened or could happen in the future.
Managing Obsessive Doubt: Flipping the Coin of Reality
So, how can people with OCD manage obsessive doubt and make OCD inactive? The short answer is asking themselves if it is worth investing their time and energy in double-checking the validity of their obsession. It’s like flipping the coin with possibility on one side and probability on the other side. Their worry might be along the lines of, “It could be possible my partner ends up in a car accident?” Or, “What if the likelihood is that I caused an accident several years ago at a party?” Without realising, the coin is blank on both sides. In other words, imagine the obsession is the coin. It will always be void of valid information or accurate knowledge, whichever way it flips.
The Pointlessness of Searching for “Facts” in OCD
When individuals can objectively assess the situation instead of obsessively thinking something awful has happened or could happen, it changes things. Objective reasoning reorients them from their imagination (the obsession) to reality. It helps ground them and recognise their anxiety is a result of feared consequences that don’t align with reality. Consequently, it helps them gain perspective, reduce distress and see the pointlessness of digging deeper for the “facts”.
Possibility, Probability, and the Illusion of Obsessions
In summary, possibility relates to the presence of chance and determines whether an event has or may happen. On the other hand, probability explores the concept of chance and determines the likelihood of an event based on various factors, such as relevant data. However, when it comes to an obsession, it defies quantification or the application of chance. It’s because it is detached from reality. In this case, it consists of inferences that may create the illusion of being real but can never be valid in the here and now.
Learn more about inferences in Clinician’s Handbook for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder.
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