Understanding Possibility vs Probability in OCD

Have you ever found yourself overwrought over the possibility of your worst fears coming true? Do you constantly analyse every potential outcome, trying to determine how likely it is to happen? Many of us struggle to distinguish between possibility and probability, mistakenly thinking they are the same. But understanding the differences between the two can help alleviate some of the anxiety that comes with the uncertainty of future events. Let’s explore the nuances of possibility and probability, and how they can impact our fears and worries, especially when obsessive doubt takes over.

Before exploring obsessive doubt in this article, let’s examine the nuances of possibility and probability and how they can influence our fears and worries.

Possibility and Probability: Understanding the Nuances

First, let’s look at possibility. It’s like flipping a coin, with two outcomes: heads and tails. Each side has a 50% chance of coming up. Here, we just want to know if either side can happen, without considering other factors. Next, we’ll discuss probability.

Grasping Probability: More Than Just Possibility

Probability isn’t just about whether an event can happen; it’s much more than that. Probability helps us understand the likelihood of an outcome occurring or one that may have already happened, and it helps us make informed decisions. Therefore, it is essential to acknowledge that probability extends beyond the potential for an event to occur. 

For example, we consider multiple factors and relevant data to assign a numerical value to the probability of something happening. We can do this by analysing past data, using statistical models, or conducting experiments. In the case of the coin flip, probability would assess the weight distribution of the coin, the force applied, and other variables to estimate the chance of it landing on heads or tails.

Another example could be predicting the weather based on historical data and current atmospheric conditions. Or consider predicting the outcome of a sports game based on the teams’ performance in previous matches.

Obsessions in OCD: Detached from Possibility and Probability

Now let’s think of an obsession in obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). It is a concept that cannot be assigned a possibility (what-if scenario). Nor can it be measured to gauge probability (how likely it is). This is because an obsession is based on a person’s imagination rather than reality. For example, consider Jack, who has Visual Tourettic OCD, a type of OCD that involves involuntary gazing at the sensitive areas of others, along with an obsession that gazing makes him a cheat.

In reality, cheating occurs. However, cheating is not caused by Jack’s obsessive fear that it will happen. For instance, Jack’s friend cheated on his partner and thinks that it means he could cheat too.

The Role of Obsessive Logic in OCD: A Key Understanding for Empathy and Support

Even though it is impossible to measure and evaluate the chances of obsessive fears occurring, Jack still doubts his sensory perceptions when confronted with these fears. Due to this, he relies on what we call OCD’s logic to find the truth and put doubt to rest. He cannot settle despite knowing logically that his obsession can never be rendered a legitimate possibility or probability. It’s hard for him to trust that it holds no factual data in the here and now. So, again, Jack counts on the details that come from OCD’s logic to make decisions.

This logic includes inferences based on personal experience, possibilities, generalisations, hearsay and abstract facts. For instance, Jack fears he will cheat due to a personal experience of responding to someone flirting with him years ago, while he was dating another person. He worries it will happen again if he doesn’t ensure his gazing episodes are innocent, so he checks multiple times by observing how people are with him and analysing staring incidents, sometimes for hours. In this case, the real-life flirting incident lends credibility to his obsession, making it seem as though known factors suggest the possibility of it happening again.

In short, inferences blend with an individual’s obsessive fear, creating a powerful illusion that it might be real. Consequently, it compels them to react compulsively when, in reality, the possibility related to their obsession is non-existent.

The Liberating Realisation: the Pointlessness of Searching for ‘Facts’ in OCD

For persons dealing with OCD, a constructive approach to managing obsessive thoughts can involve actively assessing the significance of their concerns. For example, Jack might wonder, “What if my partner finds out I stare at women’s cleavages?” or “Maybe deep down I want to cheat?” or “What if my partner splits up with me?”

But suppose Jack assesses his situation objectively. In this case, imagine it leads to significant positive changes. Objective reasoning helps shift his mindset from irrational fears to a clearer understanding of reality. It shows that this process allows him to recognise that his anxiety stems from anticipated negative outcomes and, consequently, his need for safety checks and reassurance.

By confronting his obsessive fears, Jack can see that the potential consequences, such as his partner leaving him if he doesn’t take excessive safety measures, may not accurately reflect the situation in front of him. As a result, he gains a valuable perspective. He recognises that “what-if’ is about possibility — something that could theoretically happen. Also, ‘How likely’ or ‘actual probability’ is about what is realistically probable based on his senses and the present situation.

The Benefits of Treatment for OCD: Support from Mental Health Professionals

Dealing with obsessive thoughts can be tough, but the good news is that there are excellent treatments out there to help you feel better. These include cognitive-behavioural exposure therapy with exposure and response prevention, as well as non-exposure, inference-based cognitive therapy; medication may also be an option. Talking to a mental health professional can help you find the right options for your needs.

Additionally, books can be a fantastic way to deepen your understanding of OCD and the recovery process. Remember, the OCD community supports you. More importantly, acknowledge and believe you have the strength to recover and succeed!

Summary

In summary, possibility relates to something that could theoretically happen. On the other hand, probability explores chance. It estimates the likelihood of an event based on factors like relevant data. However, when it comes to an obsession and possibility, the theoretical basis is groundless. And probability cannot be measured or applied. This is because an obsession disconnects from reality. It consists of inferences that add credibility to an obsession, creating the illusion of reality but can never be validated.

Source: Clinician’s Handbook for Obsessive Compulsive Disorder by Frederick Aardema and Kieron O’Connor (2012).